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However, LSR noted that traditional game outcomes are no longer reliable indicators of bookmaker profitability, largely due to the rapid growth of same-game parlays and player props.

In the Las Vegas-based Circa Survivor contest, which drew over 25,000 entries entering Week 1, more than 8,000 entries were eliminated in the opening slate—most knocked out when the 8.5-point favorite Chargers fell to the Cardinals. That upset served as a proxy for the wider market, ruining countess parlay tickets across major sportsbooks.

Looking ahead to Week 2, bettors continue to chase high-scoring games. At BetMGM, Overs represent three of the five most-bet game totals by ticket count: Vikings-Bears (Over 48), Saints-Ravens (Over 46), and Panthers-Falcons (Over 44).

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Unlike regulated sportsbooks, prediction markets allow customers between the ages of 18 and 21 to trade on sports-event contracts. Craig Carton, a sports talk host with WFAN 660 AM in New York, criticised the athletes for their endorsement of Polymarket. Carton, a recovering compulsive gambler, opined that the “unregulated” gambling markets are driving Americans into bankruptcy and kids out of school. Regulated books prohibit those under 21 from betting on their platform, leading Carton to question the celebrities for promoting the company.

“At what point does someone come along where you say no to the offer?” Carton asked.

A Bank of America study released on 1 September found that the median deposit account balance of households that participated in online betting was 59% higher than households that avoided the activity. As prediction markets rapidly expand alongside traditional sports betting, the findings have prompted “some to blur the lines between entertainment and investment”, according to a proprietary study undertaken by BofA.

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The launch of Prediction.com comes amid a strategic integration phase following Genius Sports’ acquisition of Legend. 

It coincided with the beginning of the NFL season in the US, viewed as a peak commercial period for sports data monetisation. Genius also maintains partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel, both of which signed extensions to remain as NFL partners ahead of this season.

Citizens gaming analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a 16 Sept. note that with the NFL season now under way: “Genius should benefit from increased spending across both traditional sports betting and the emerging prediction market industry.”