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Though Maryland, Virginia, and New York do not have iGaming, prediction markets offering trading on everything from sports to politics continue to make their platforms accessible. Controversial sweepstakes casinos additionally continue to operate in Virginia and Maryland.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) believes many federally regulated prediction markets have transformed into illegal gambling and sports betting outfits, siphoning revenue from the legal, taxed gaming industry. Prediction markets, the trade group argues, threaten jobs and tax revenue, as do other forms of illegal gambling like skill games, sweepstakes casinos, and offshore sportsbooks.
Illegal gambling operators are thriving at the expense of American consumers, siphoning billions in tax revenue from state governments, and undercutting the efforts of the legal market,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “It’s time for a national crackdown on the pervasive illegal market that is draining state coffers and putting people at risk.”
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Rather than simply building what is requested, teams are increasingly expected to understand why something is being built and what value it should create.
As Paul Crisp, Cubeia’s head of marketing, points out: “If the objective is 10% more traffic, for example, how do we measure it?
“We need to establish a baseline, implement the change, measure it and see whether it goes up by 10%. If it only goes up by 1%, maybe we need another iteration because we haven’t fulfilled the objective.”
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With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.
Two other leagues, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have each signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC that allows participating teams to partner with the operators.
