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Buffett has repeatedly raised concerns regarding the mainstreaming of gambling and its marketing under the guise of investing. In May, he targeted prediction markets and traders speculating on short-term instruments like 30-minute bitcoin options.
“If you’re buying or selling one-day options, that is not investing. It is not speculating. It is gambling,” Buffett said during an interview with CNBC. “There’s nobody who can explain why they’re buying an option for one day.”
Buffett, who built his fortune buying “wonderful businesses” at fair prices and holding them for the long term, believes the public has mistakenly adopted a get-rich-quick mindset.
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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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Prediction market volume attributable to “takers”—recreational and retail traders who pull liquidity from exchanges—is forecast to reach $190 billion this year.
That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.
Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.
