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However, he may have indeed been able to spot the imperfection in the cards, which is an outcome completely different than what was ruled in the case of Phil Ivey, a popular poker pro who ended up using edge sorting to win millions of dollars, but had to forfeit or repay his winnings in the end.

Grant said, at the time of his own case against Star Casino, that he had noticed cards being asymmetrical, but that he had no way of knowing what the next card on his table would be – just like other players there.

How does this apply to Grant’s case against Royal Caribbean? Well, things may be different there; Royal Caribbean takes advantage of players in general, arguing that the practice is tantamount to cheating.

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Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.

“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.